Probabilistic Artificial Intelligence (2024)

How can we build systems that perform well in uncertain environments and unforeseen situations? How can we develop systems that exhibit “intelligent” behavior, without prescribing explicit rules? How can we build systems that learn from experience in order to improve their performance? We will study core modeling techniques and algorithms from statistics, optimization, planning, and control and study applications in areas such as sensor networks, robotics, and the Internet. The course is designed for upper-level undergraduate and graduate students. VVZ information is available here.
News
    • [Dec 5, 2024] There will be no lecture on the 13th December, but there will be a final lecture on the 20th December.
    • [Nov 25,2024] A representative from the course’s projects team will be at the QandA session on Monday 2nd December and will give a brief sketch of a task 1 and 2 solution. This is rescheduled from a previous date. During the 16th December QandA they will review task 3.
    • [Oct 10,2024] The submission deadlines for projects have been extended by 11 hours and 58 minutes, now set at 23:59 CET.
    • [Oct 9,2024] Task 1 of projects is available. Please check the projects section for further information.
    • [Aug 22, 2024] The first lecture of the course will begin on Friday 20th September as specified in the schedule below. The first tutorial will be on Thursday 26th September.
Access to lecture materials
The lecture materials and the Q&A zoom meetings are password protected. To obtain the password you need to be inside the ETH network or use the ETH VPN and click here. Check here to learn how to establish a VPN connection.
Script
The lecture script is available here. If you find mistakes or have tips on how to improve the script, we encourage you to send an email to or to create an issue / merge request in the GitLab project. You will be granted access to this repository after the semester starts. We aim to continuously improve the script based on your feedback. Since the script is updated whenever we notice and fix a mistake, we encourage you to re-download the script from time to time. Errors noticed since the beginning of the semester will be listed in the errata at the end of the pdf. You can check which errors have been fixed since your version of the script by comparing with the compilation date on page (ii).
Lectures
Lectures will be held on Fridays, 10:15 to 12:00 and 13:15 to 14:00, in ETA F5 with a simultaneous video transmission to ETA E1. If you are in ETA E1, you will be able to ask questions via the course channel on the EduApp. The Lectures are not live-streamed. They are recorded and the recording will be made available after the lecture (a link will be added here once the first lecture becomes available). The first lecture will take place on Fri, 20th September 2024. It is not mandatory, but very much encouraged, to attend the lectures. The table below will be filled as the resource becomes available. The lecture materials and recordings from last year’s course are available on last year’s course website.
Date Topic Slides Annotated Slides Recording
Fri 20.09. Introduction 01-introduction 01-introduction-annotated part1 part2
Fri 27.09. Bayesian Linear Regression 02-blr 02-blr-annotated part1 part2
Fri 04.10. Gaussian Processes 03-gps 03-gps-annotated part1 part2
Fri 11.10. Gaussian Processes II 04-gps2 04-gps2-annotated part1 part2
Fri 18.10. Variational Inference 05-variational 05-variational-annotated part1 part2
Fri 25.10. Markov Chain Monte Carlo 06-mcmc 06-mcmc-annotated part1 part2
Fri 01.11. Bayesian Deep Learning 07-bdl 07-bdl-annotated part1 part2
Fri 08.11. Active Learning 08-active-learning 08-active-learning-annotated part1 part2
Fri 15.11. Markov Decision Processes 09-mdps 09-mdps-annotated part1 part2
Fri 22.11. Reinforcement Learning 10-rl 10-rl-annotated part1 part2
Fri 29.11. Reinforcement Learning II 11-rl2 11-rl2-annotated part1 part2
Fri 06.12. Reinforcement Learning III 12-rl3 12-rl3-annotated part1 part2
Fri 13.12. No lecture this week
Fri 20.12. Model-based Deep RL 13-mb-rl 13-mb-rl-annotated part1 part2

Tutorials
Tutorials will be held on Thursdays, 16:00 to 18:00 in HG F7. The tutorials are also not live-streamed but recorded and also available afterwards on this webpage. The first tutorial will take place on Thursday, 26th September 2024, and the last tutorial will take place on Thursday, 12th December 2024. It is not mandatory, but very much encouraged, to attend the tutorials.
Date Topic Slides Recording Homework/ Solution Moodle
Thu 26.09.2024 Math/Probability Tutorial1 / Annot1 Recording Homework 1 / solution1 Quiz 1
Thu 03.10.2024 Homework 1 Tutorial2 / Annot2 Recording -
Thu 10.10.2024 Gaussian Process Tutorial3 / Annot3 Recording Homework 2 / solution2 Quiz 2
Thu 17.10.2024 Homework 2 Tutorial4 / Annot4 Recording -
Thu 24.10.2024 Variational Inference Tutorial5 /Annot5 Recording Homework 3 / solution3 Quiz 3
Thu 31.10.2024 Homework 3 Tutorial6 / Annot6 Recording -
Thu 07.11.2024 Bayesian Deep Learning Tutorial7 / Annot7 Recording Homework 4 / solution4 Quiz 4
Thu 14.11.2024 Homework 4 Tutorial8 / Annot8 Recording -
Thu 21.11.2024 Markov Decision Processes Tutorial9 / Annot9 Recording Homework 5 / solution5 Quiz 5
Thu 28.11.2024 Homework 5 Tutorial / Annot10 Recording -
Thu 05.12.2024 Reinforcement Learning Tutorial / Annot11 Recording Homework 6 / solution6 Quiz 6
Thu 12.12.2024 Homework 6 Tutorial /Annot12 Recording -

Q&A sessions
Q&A sessions (virtual office hours) will be held on Monday, 17:15 to 18:00 virtually on Zoom. Like the lectures and tutorials, the Q&As start 15 min past 17:00. To join the Zoom call, you have to be logged into your ETH zoom account (i.e., <nethz-login>@ethz.ch and your email password) and enter the Zoom room password. The session will be recorded and the recording will be made available afterwards. The Q&A sessions are an informal opportunity to ask questions about the course. You will be able to ask questions via the native Zoom chat or by speaking out. In the Q&A sessions after the deadlines of projects we will give a brief overview of the project and a sketch of a possible solution for students that are interested. We will also be there to answer any questions related to the project. These project Q&A’s will be hosted on Dec 2 (Covering Task 1 and 2), and Dec 16 (Covering Task 3). The first Q&A session will take place on Monday, 23rd September 2024, and the last Q&A session will take place on Monday, 16th December 2024. It is not mandatory to attend the Q&A sessions. These sessions will be recorded and the recording will be made available after the lecture on this webpage.
Date Topic Recording
Mon 23.09.2024 Session 1 Recording
Mon 30.09.2024 Session 2 Recording
Mon 07.10.2024 Session 3 Recording
Mon 14.10.2024 Session 4 Recording
Mon 21.10.2024 Session 5 Recording
Mon 28.10.2024 Session 6 Recording
Mon 04.11.2024 Session 7 Recording
Mon 11.11.2024 Session 8 Recording
Mon 18.11.2024 Session 9 Recording
Mon 25.11.2024 Session 10 Recording
Mon 02.12.2024 Session 11 Recording
Mon 09.12.2024 Session 12 Recording
Mon 16.12.2024 Exam Review Recording / Slides

Contact
Instructor Prof. Andreas Krause
Head TA Scott Sussex
Assistants Arad Mohammadi, Arghavan Kassraie, Armin Lederer, Barna Pasztor, Bhavya Sukhija, Chenhao Li, Cynthia Chen, Dennis Jueni, Erya Guo, Fangyuan Sun, Frederike Lübeck, Jin Cheng, Jonas Hübotter, Lars Lorch, Leander Diaz-Bone, Liyuan Li, Manish Prajapat, Marco Bagatella, Michael Meziu, Mohammadreza Karimi, Mojmir Mutni, Morteza Sadat, Nicolas Dutly, Parnian Kassraie, Patrik Okanovic, Paul Streli, Riccardo De Santi, Tanyu Jiang, Viacheslav Borovitskiy, Yarden As, Yilmazcan Özyurt, Xiangge Huang, Yunke Ao.
Mailing List Please use Moodle for any questions regarding the course or ask your question in the lectures, tutorials or Q&A sessions. If you need to contact the Head TA or the lecturer directly, please send an email to pai24-info@inf.ethz.ch. Please think twice before you send an email though and make sure you read all information here carefully.
Lectures
Fri 10-12 ETA F5 [ETF E1]
Fri 13-14 ETA F5 [ETF E1]
Recordings
Tutorials
Thu 16-18 HG F7 Recordings
Questions & Answers
Mon 17:15-18 Zoom room Virtual

Moodle
We do not maintain a mailing list, but instead kindly request you to use Moodle to ask questions with regard to the course. The Moodle will become available in the first week of the course. Please ask your questions in the Moodle forum whose topic best fits your question. In special cases, if you need to contact the Head TA directly, please send an email to pai24-info@inf.ethz.ch instead of contacting them at their personal email address. The head TA will not respond to requests sent to their personal email address. Please think twice before you send an email though and make sure you read all information here carefully. Based on previous experience, we received a lot of questions or requests that are resolvable with the information provided here.
Projects
The course includes a total of five projects. Projects are code assignments that require solving machine learning problems with methods taught in the course. For each project, you are allowed to work in a group of one to three students. It is your own responsibility to form a group and you can find teammates in the lectures or on Moodle. The first project (Task 0) will be ungraded; its purpose is to help you familiarize yourself with the code submission workflow. The remaining projects are graded and you are required to pass 3 out of 4 of them in order to be eligible to sit the exam. More information including a tentative schedule is available in the project information sheet and on the project server . Both are accessible from within the ETH network or via VPN.
Homework
We will publish a total of six (optional) homework assignments during the lecture series. The homework assignments will be published on this website and some questions from the homework assignment will additionally be made available as a Moodle quiz. These assignments are intended for you to apply and reinforce the material presented in the lecture and to get accustomed to the Moodle platform. You are encouraged, but not required to do the homework. Your performance in the homework will have no influence on your final grade. Homework assignments are expected to be published bi-weekly, with solutions following one week after or being directly visible in Moodle. The exact day and time a homework is being published may deviate slightly over the course of the semester.
Demos
Demos will be shown during the lecture and are made available to you here. They are hosted in a GitLab repository to which you need to be given access. Everyone who enrolled (on mystudies) to the course before October 2nd 2024, will be automatically granted access to this Gitlab repository. If you enrolled at a later date, please individually request access by sending an email to pai24-info@inf.ethz.ch. Use the subject line “Access Request: PAI 2024 Demos” and include your nethz in this email. The demos are Jupyter Notebooks.
Exam
The language of the examination is English. More details on the exam will follow later, since the mode (computer-based or paper-based) depends on the number of registered students and will not be finalized until the end of October.
Repetition Exam: We hold an exam in the winter during the Examination Session, and we do not offer a repetition exam in summer. You will need to enrol next year, if you fail to participate in the winter exam or fail to obtain a passing grade.
Special Arrangement: If you are disadvantaged and have therefore been granted a special arrangement with extra time by the study administration, please email and attach a pdf that proves the special arrangement and the eligibility for extra time during the exam. You must do so by the exam de-registration deadline.
Study resources for the exam: You can download the exams from the previous two years with provisional solutions: [Exam-2021-A] [Solution-2021-A] [Exam-2021-B] [Solution-2021-B] [Exam-2022-A] [Solution-2022-A] [Exam-2022-B] [Solution-2022-B] [Exam-2023] [Solution-2023] [Exam-2024] [Solution-2024] to better prepare yourself for the final exam. Please note that we do not guarantee 100% correctness of the provided solutions. You are encouraged to think for yourself and discuss exam-related content on the Moodle forum or share any questions. Any exams that are older are not fully representative of the course content, because the course changed substantially three years ago. In case you still do want to take a look at them, please refer to the course webpage of PAI 2020, where you can access exam sheets from 2012 to 2019.
Performance Assessment
In order to be allowed to sit the session examination, you need to pass the projects. This year, that means achieving a grade of pass on 3 out of the 4 graded projects (not including task 0). If you don’t pass the projects, you are required to de-register from the exam and will otherwise be treated as a no-show. The final grade for the course will be 100% based on your exam grade. There are no special arrangements for PhD students who are taking this course. In order to obtain a “Testat”, you need a passing grade for the course. That is, you need to pass the projects as described above, take the exam and achieve a passing grade (4 or higher) for the course. If you passed the projects last year, you still need to do the projects again this year. The project grade cannot be carried over from the previous year.
Text Books
      • S. Russell, P. Norvig. Artificial Intelligence: A Modern Approach (4th edition).
      • C. E. Rasmussen, C. K. I. Williams Gaussian Processes for Machine Learning.
      • Christopher M. Bishop. Pattern Recognition and Machine Learning. [optional]
      • Richard S. Sutton and Andrew G. Barto. Reinforcement Learning: An Introduction.